Diigo Notes 08/15/2014 (p.m.)

    •  14日,商务部、海关总署发布公告称,鉴于此前对于韩美以及欧盟太阳能级多晶硅采取贸易救济措施后,我国加工贸易项下多晶硅进口出现激增,决定自9月1日起暂停多晶硅加工贸易进口业务。
    • What We Like About ReneSola:

      – ReneSola’s growing network of OEM partners makes it likely that the Company can effectively circumvent potential tariffs in the future – this reduces market uncertainty and makes the Company better positioned than its Chinese peers in adapting to varying regulatory dynamics around the world.

    • – ReneSola produced 1.816 metric tons of polysilicon in Q2 2014, which is slightly above its production level in Q4 2013. We find the small capacity growth somewhat disappointing. In light of the Company’s extended maintenance shutdown in Q1, we were expecting the Company to have more meaningfully increased its capacity. Nevertheless, poly remains one of the brighter short term vectors for the Company. While ReneSola’s fully loaded cost of polysilicon at $21 is not attractive, its cash cost of $17.50 makes this business a cashflow generator in the near term. ReneSola management also mentioned that the Company gets $1 to $2 dollars in subsidy from Sichuan government which brings its polysilicon cash costs down to the $15 to $16 range. With this updated cost structure, the polysilicon business is likely to be a significant cash flow generator for the next several quarters – possibly until 2016. With the benefit of subsidies, poly business alone is likely contribute a cashflow of around $0.08 to $0.10 per ADS per quarter for rest of 2014.
    • – The Company had indicated that it will be focusing on the “KW” DG market instead of the “MW” utility market. We believe the DG focus is prudent for the Company and in-line with OEM model.
    • – And finally ReneSola’s inverter and LED lighting business continue to be wild cards. These businesses are nascent and gets barely a mention from the management. The inverter segment in specific should do exceptionally well in the context of the Company’s DG focus.
    • What We Do Not Like About ReneSola:

      – The Company’s profitability in Q2 was primarily a result of reversal of doubtful account allowance from Q1. The module business underperformed due to a decline of ASPs from $0.69 per watt in Q1 to $0.66 per watt in Q2 which was only partially offset by declining cost structure. Further ASP decreases in excess of cost reduction can adversely affect the Company’s profitability.

      – ReneSola’s module cost may become higher without access to cheaper Taiwanese cell capacity. ReneSola is one of the few Chinese companies that can benefit from the cheaper Taiwanese cell prices. However, low Taiwanese cell pricing is a temporary phenomenon due to supply dislocation caused by US tariffs. It is doubtful if the low Taiwanese cell costs can be sustained for more than a quarter or two.

      – While the Company’s polysilicon operation contributed meaningfully to the positive cash flow, the polysilicon upside a short term story and it is doubtful if the Company can derive meaningful cash flows from this business past 2016.

      – The Company’s balance sheet remains one of the weakest among its Chinese peers. The debt situation severely limits the Company’s strategic options including its ability to participate in the high margin solar project business.

    • 集装箱逆变器方案在运维、可靠性、散热等方面存在着诸多不足之处。其能否发挥好自身产品特点,很大程度上是取决于环境的影响、逆变器厂家或集装箱厂家的产品质量和技术先进性的,不是每一个地方都适用集装箱式逆变器,也不是每家的集装箱式逆变器都没有问题的。业主在投资光伏电站上,会考虑初始建设成本,但更应注重产品的长期寿命、安全和运维总成本,一般光伏电站的运营至少是20年,除了发电量外,电站的安全可靠、运维成本也是业主应关心的头等大事。如何保障20年长期的电站收益,就必须要考虑设备选型时20年周期内的后期运维成本,这些问题是值得我们深思和研究的!
    • 从2011年起,集装箱式光伏系统接入解决方案开始应用到国内荒漠地面光伏电站里,到2013年,超过70%的大型地面电站,甚至机场、工业企业等大型屋顶电站,都采用了集装箱解决方案。由于集装箱式方案在建设成本、施工进度、系统整体性等方面的显著优势,大多业主和EPC在项目之初就确定了集装箱方案设计路线。经过两年多的应用和改进,国内集装箱式方案不仅保持其在电网接入友好性、初装经济性方面的优势,对于散热防尘等电站运营维护方面的技术提升也都在持续改进。
    • 风电行业在产业规模、发展历史上都较光伏行业更为成熟。风场处于风力资源丰富地带,但风沙积尘并非风场日常运营维护的重点难点,风电塔筒在散热防尘方面一定有可取之处。经过比较研究,新型的集装箱方案防尘技术也已投入市场。借鉴风机塔筒在进风风道的设计,新型的集装箱方案采用底部进风的方式,经过底部地基的沉降后,进入逆变房的灰尘大大降低。
    • 智能光伏电站解决方案的特点就是智能、高效、安全和可靠。相比传统集中式解决方案,有一个核心理念就是让电站更简单。所谓让电站更简单就是指:无逆变器房、直流汇流箱等系统多余设施,无熔丝、风扇等易损部件,实现电站的简洁化、标准化交付,电站所有部件能够满足风沙、盐雾、高温高湿、高海拔等各种复杂环境,25年免维护、可靠运行的质量要求,建设与运维更加简单,最大程度保护客户投资。

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